I recall being a somewhat younger investor/trader looking at ideas a decade ago and Illumina seemed pie-in-the-sky, and was stock that traded in the low digits at one time. I traded it and have regretted ever since, for having sold those shares long ago. Secular trends, like all worthy speculative ventures, take time to foster and nurture into maturity, including: marriage, fixer-upper first…
$EURUSD $FXE $6E_F has been a “sell” / “short” for the past month. The suggested stop loss is about 2 cents, depending on the instrument, pretty hefty for those in the FX trading world, but my risk size (and leverage) would be considerably smaller.
Bumpy times for bitcoin
After an extended period of relative calm, bitcoin has experienced some considerable swings to the downside over the past couple of weeks, and even saw its own mini “flash crash” Monday. For a brief moment on the BTC-e exchange, the value of bitcoin plummeted to $309, although it quickly recovered from the drop some speculated had been linked to margin trading, which the exchange introduced in November. Meanwhile, the Coindesk Bitcoin Price Index tumbled $60 to a low of $435.60; it has since recovered to trade at around $480 on Tuesday afternoon. This was the first time since May that bitcoin saw its trading price go below $500. Lesser-known cryptocurrencies litecoin and darkcoin were also hit during Monday’s rout.
There was no one particular peg to Monday’s downward movement for bitcoin, although the price has seen declines since July, when New York became the first state to propose firm regulations for cryptocurrencies. Last week the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau also issued a warning on bitcoin, noting, “Virtual currencies may have potential benefits, but consumers need to be cautious and they need to be asking the right questions.”
This kind of volatility is not exactly new to bitcoin, which last year saw its prices hit a peak of around $1,150. Traders may be used to navigating such movements, but they may be more disconcerting to the average consumer looking to use bitcoin as currency to purchase items from the growing list of retailers who accept it. Such purchases are also complicated by the recent IRS ruling that bitcoin is property, not currency, and therefore subject to the capital gains tax.
Market ebullience levels up across the board. Any discussion about “tops” and “bottoms” can be stressful, so don’t bother.
$AAPL $QQQ $FB $GILD $TSLA $FXI $FDO $DIS $CELG $HPQ $QIHU $CAM $PEP $BITA $HCA $EMC $LYB $AMT $RIO $X $BRCM
The market has presented all kinds of “long” ideas, in a variety of industries, classes. The above list is just a sampling of the ones that made it for review tonight on a rolling weekly price action review. I can’t call tops or bottoms, and it would be too stressful to make the “call”. I…
(a tale of two economies)
I’m scared. Imagine you’re the passenger and a coke-addict speed addict drunk is driving the car and it’s on one of those James Bond cliffs where one wrong move and everybody dies in a firebomb.
That’s where the economy is. I’m not a doom and gloom guy. I’m an…
I decided to invest in my first app.
It’s called Humin, and it launched this week (and was the #1 trending App on launch day).
It is going to make life easier (and it’s going to be the next billion-dollar company).
Allow me explain why it’s so epic…
Context is key. Where did you meet that…
Forget Barbie. Why not have young girls play with Marie Curie?
Starting with a doll modeled after Nobel Prize winner Marie Curie, the line will feature strong female role models from history, along with an accompanying app that has new content for each doll. “It’s not just about getting girls excited about engineering. It’s important to show girls all the opportunities available to them,” says Hobbs.
All You Need to Know About Emerging Markets
The following data came from studies done by Vanguard, Credit Suisse and WisdomTree
- At the end of 2013, emerging market stocks had a 12-month dividend yield of 2.7%. There have only been eight calendar years that began with a higher yield and the average return over those eight years was 46%.
- From 2000-2010. The annualized return on the MSCI Emerging Markets index was 10.9%, developed markets did just 1.3%.
- Going back to 1900, three countries are still “emerging” 114 years later: China, Russia and South Africa.
- From 1945-1949, Japanese equities lost almost 98% of their value, in US dollar terms.
- Since 1950, emerging market equities delivered annualized gains of 12.5%, versus 10.8% for developed markets.
- The ratio of emerging/developed market volatility was 1.9 in 1980 and has since fallen to 1.1, in other words emerging market stocks are now just 10% more volatile than developed market stocks.
- The average correlation for the 5 years ending in 1980 between emerging markets and developed markets indices for a U.S. investor was .57, by the end of 2013 that has risen to .88.
- Emerging markets pay around 17% of the global dividend stream
- One-third of revenues from the MSCI All-Country World Index come from emerging markets, however only ~10% of the index is comprised of emerging market stocks!
- Contrary to popular belief, emerging market crises tend to be less contagious than developed market crises. Correlations shoot higher during crises originating in developed markets but stay at normal levels during emerging market crises.
- Value as a factor has worked better than momentum in emerging markets since 2000.
- Thirty years ago, emerging markets made up 1% of the world equity market cap and 18% of world GDP, today they are ~10% of the investable universe and are 33% of world GDP.
- Emerging markets have ~55% share of the global population.
- Since 1995, share issuance has accounted for the majority of market-cap growth for emerging markets, not price appreciation.
- Cumulative dividend growth for the last 3 years: Developed market- 32.9%; Emerging market- 67.9%
- From 2001-2012, the global economy almost doubled in size, emerging markets account for roughly 64% of the increase.
Picture by Simon Cunningham